| Published: Helium |
| Date: May 2007 |
| Section: Sports/NASCAR/Opinion |
| Comments: |
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By: Ian Essling
Everyone has, apparently, nothing to talk about but (Dale) Ralph Earnhardt Jr. these past few weeks, so I guess it's time for me to share my oh-so-humble opinion.
Basically, these are the options, as I see it, for the guy. He wants to drive for Chevy, so that rules out some teams. Plus, we know he's not going to drive for a field filler or for a team like Haas that is just barely finishing top-20 every week. So, that leaves the following, in order of their best fit for Junior.
I think that JGR is actually the best fit for him, because of his friendship with Hamlin and Stewart. However, since the Coach said he's not taking Budweiser in as a sponsor and Junior certainly doesn't want to part with them, I don't think it is exactly the dream scenario.
If he did go, however, he could easily take over the 18 car, and Yeley could move to JGR's satellite team, Hall of Fame racing, driving their second car. As I said, pretty good fit.
Fit: 80%
Chance: 20%
Junior wants to be his own man, and there's no way better to do that than with his own team. The problems, however, are numerous. His Busch program is not a consistent winner or even consistent top-5 car, and that leads me to think that his Cup effort, despite the money from Budweiser, might be more along the lines of a Michael Waltrip effort than an Alan Kulwicki team.
On top of that, while owner/drivers are still around, they are not weekly contenders. If Junior pulls his own team into the Cup series, it will be because he's too stubborn to make something work somewhere else, and it will also be the biggest mistake in his career.
Fit: 80%
Chance: 40%
Ginn's upstart little team (formerly known as MB2 Motorsports) has certainly flexed its muscle this year, with a runner up finish in the Daytona 500 and a number of good runs with Mark Martin behind the wheel of the 01. What Ginn does not have right now is a superstar, and Junior could fit that bill easily. He would handily be the number one driver over there, with the aging Sterling Marlin about to retire and Front-Row Joe Nemecheck sitting midpack every week.
The biggest problem with this move is that Junior has said he wants to be a contender, and Ginn, in my opinion, has not proven that they will continue to be good. Ten races into the season is not enough to decide if the organization is completely sound.
Still, I think it is a good fit and a higher chance than JGR. Junior would be the center of attention, would have the best equipment, would have his precious sponsor and would still be driving a Chevy. I guess it's just up to whether or not he considers Ginn a 'contender.'
Fit: 65%
Chance: 35%
There are a lot of people on the fence on this one. I, however, am not one of them. I strongly believe that Junior does not belong driving the #3 car; no one does but the late, great Dale Earnhardt himself. Obviously, at RCR Junior could drive another car number than the 3, but he has already said he wants to distance himself from his father's legacy and make his own name. He can't do that very well at a company his father raced for for decades.
I don't think the RCR and Junior mix is nearly as solid as many think. For starters, the RCR bunch already has a solid stable of drivers, including the prerequisite superstar (Daytona winner Kevin Harvick), veteran (Jeff Burton) and young gun (Clint Bowyer). Add to that the fact that RCR Busch driver Scott Wimmer has already been mentioned as a fourth-car driver in the Cup series and you have a pretty full stable.
The biggest reason I think this won't work, however, is the new engine building alliance between RCR and DEI. I personally don't think the alliance helps RCR much, since they have much more solid packages than DEI, but with regards to Earnhardt, the man has said he doesn't agree with how DEI is run and wants to be done with it. If that's the case, he certainly doesn't want to sign with a team that is now working closer than ever with his former organization.
Fit: 45%
Chance: 30%
Junior wants a contender, and there's no one better than Hendrick Motorsports right now. Rick Hendrick, however, has said that his stable is full. However, do you believe he wouldn't make room for Junior? Neither do I.
In fact, I honestly think that this is where Junior is going to end up in 2008. With Casey Mears winning the Coke 600, I think the man on the hotseat is Kyle Busch, and I think he's about to get burned. The guy wrecks cars every week and has an attitude almost as bad as his big brother Kurt. He is a disruptive force on and off the track, and I think that Rick Hendrick would be wise to dump him, and even wiser to pick up Junior. Think about it; the two biggest superstars in the sport (Junior and Jeff Gordon) running as teammates. Talk about marketing opportunities!
Plus, the car is a contender (when it's not smashed into the fence by Busch), so that fills that part of the quota.
Ironically, despite the fact that it will give him the best chance to win a championship, the Junior Legion will probably hate this move. After all, they all hate Gordon because of his success, and it won't sit well with them to see Junior as his teammate. I almost want him to move over there just to see all of their reactions...but I digress; the superstar factor is the only reason I say this doesn't fit.
Yes, I know, I said that's where he's going to end up, but that doesn't mean that's the best fit. Putting two Nextel Cup champions and Dale Jr. on the same team should be interesting. After all, the latter will expect to be number one, but he should, at best, be number three behind Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Expect some friction, but expect Dale Jr. in the 5 car next year, with Kyle Busch looking for a job...which he might find in, oh, I don't know, the old 8 car?
Silly Season at its best, folks.
Fit: 35%
Chance: 80%  |
